November was a fantastic month for most of the stock market, a wonderful pre-Christmas party, recovering the same 9% that it had lost in the months from August through late October. The party might well continue for some high flyers, but most stocks will probably stay in place for the rest of the year.

The spaghetti plot shows that the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are expected to keep on climbing for the next few months with their party likely ending around March 2024. The S&P 500 is likely to pause over December and grow modestly during the early months of 2024. Non-tech parts of the economy, typified by the Dow-Jones Industrials and the Russell 2000 seem headed for a few weak months.

Looking at the long-term trend charts, it is clear that much of the ‘ordinary’ economy in the Value Line Arithmetic Index has been below trend for months, but the S&P 500 is almost exactly on trend. Of all my forecasts, Bank stocks as a whole appear headed for a few rough months — not surprising as long as short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates.

The Alpha Test of forecasting a wide range of stocks and ETFs has been surprisingly successful so far. I hope that in January I will be able to upgrade it to a Beta Test — still experimental but a bit more deserving of attention.

Happy Holidays to all!