I ran my stock market forecasting models updated for the end of May.  Despite the strong performance of the U.S. market this month, the new forecast is even rosier than the numbers as of the end of April.

Probability of at least breaking even: 83%
Probability of an 8% dip along the way: 50%.

Statistically the stock market tends to be weak over the second half of the year, but my models say that probably will not be true this year. Why?

Here is a PDF of my full market report at scribd.com
http://www.scribd.com/doc/145298705/TomT-Stock-Market-Model-2013-05-31

For several years I have been testing a fairly simple model I developed for forecasting the U.S. stock market.  Every six months or so I have included my forecast in a newsletter that I distributed to patient friends.  The results have been pretty encouraging, so I decided to try adding them to a blog.

My current forecast covers May to the end of October 2013. The models forecast a stock market rise of 7%.  The probablility of the market at least breaking even during the period is 76%. The chance of at least a temporary correction during the period is better than even — 53%.  Personally, I think that the model is a bit optimistic, so my own guess would be for a return of only 4% or so.

Here is the scribd.com link for the full newsletter:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/136737586/TomT-Stock-Market-Model-2013-04-21