Many of our 6-month ETF forecasts have turned distinctly negative. As a subscriber to SixMonthStockMarketForecast.com you can scan our ETF forecasts on a daily basis, and can see that only about 10% of the 286 ETF forecasts have a positive 6-month forecast. Not surprisingly, many of those with positive forecasts are low-volatility, high-dividend products, which […]
(I think) The beta test with daily forecast updates is now live! Please check it out and register for a free subscription. If you were registered earlierfor the staging site you will need to register again. Thanks for your patience as I get things running. Tom
As shown in the graph above, my current data-intensive stock market forecasting models are almost uniformly worried about moderate market declines over the next few weeks/months. The forecasts are not terrible, just a couple/few percent drops in most cases. The glaring exceptions are high tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100 where the 6 month decline […]
China has drastically cut its purchases of oil since the start of the Iran oil crisis to the lowest level in ten years, according to Reuters and others. Perhaps China’s massive switch to renewables and increased use coal has permanently reduced China’s need for imported oil. But, the drop is sudden and the timing is […]
I used to have a single economic model of how the stock market normally behaves under different economic conditions. Now, I have thousands of competing models using mountains of data, and nearly ‘all’ are saying the same thing: Even though U.S. stock market indexes are all near all-time highs, a modest decline is coming to […]
Our stock market forecasts are based on what “usually” happens in a given set of economic circumstances. The primary economic concerns now are rising levels of inflation and a very high, sustained federal budget deficit. The usual government response is to tighten spending, while the Federal Reserve usually tightens the money supply and increases interest […]
We have little modern economic precedent for a 50% spike in oil prices with further room to run. The only true parallels are the embargoes of 1973 and 1979. While a barrel of crude sat at $60 last fall, it commands $99 today. As the world’s largest producer, the U.S. is better shielded from physical […]
(Spoiler alert: scary chart below.) I have been working to add a quantitative measure of risk exposure to my stock market overview material. There are numerous ways to quantify risk, and I am trying to come up with some sort of composite indicator that includes the full spectrum of “make you want to puke” factors: […]
I have a new market summary graph that requires a bit of explanation. It shows 1-year historical price plots for the major U.S. market averages (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, Dow Jones 30) along with my 1-week to 6-month forecasts for each. They are increasingly flat. (As you will notice, I still have not avoided […]
The stock forecasting models behind this blog continuously crunch and re-crunch numbers for a vast array of economic and business data, most of it going back decades. The data pays greatest attention to factors like GDP fluctuation, and severe financial market stress that have direct statistical correlation to stock market shifts (95% confidence as minimum). […]