The statistical forecasting models say:
February thru July, 2023:  +8% (Better than average)
Next 3 Months:  1%  (Ordinary.)
Probability of at least breaking even: 98% (Excellent)

For the moment, the broad ‘value end’ of the stock market (as I measure it) is roughly 10% below where it “should” be. There is room to go up.

There are still plenty of worries..

• Interest rates will continue to increase.
• The full impact of interest rate increases takes about a year to appear.
• Congressional Republicans clearly want a budget fight.
• An unknown swarm of zombie companies could appear as pandemic aid finally drains away.
• Workers have not all gone back to work. There are real fears for commercial real estate.
• Plus, there are always Black Swans flying about.

Other than that, everything is great!!

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