My macroeconomic models predict strong gains for the U.S. stock market for the first half of 2015 — not fantastic, but decidedly better than average. (Based on the Value Line Arithmetic Average)

Forecast:
Probable stock market gain 12/1/2014 to 6/1/2015:  8%  (Avg. 6 months since 1984: 4.8%)
Probability of at least breaking even :   80%  (Average for all months since 1984: 73%)

As the models assess the situation, the underlying factors that have propelled the U.S. stock market upward since 2009 remain in place.  The economy is still under-performing, but is improving. Interest rates remain incredibly low. Composite macroeconomic leading indicators are OK, but not great. Chances of a near-term recession are generally assessed as very low.  While stocks are not at bargain-prices, the odds favor continued gains.  With all the normal bumps, potholes and surprises along the way.